Ua hoʻonui nui ʻia nā mākeke pellet honua i nā makahiki i hala aku nei, ʻo ka hapa nui ma muli o ke koi ʻana mai ka ʻoihana ʻoihana. ʻOiai ʻo nā mākeke hoʻomehana pellet ka nui o ka noi honua, e kālele ana kēia ʻike i ka ʻāpana lāʻau pellet ʻoihana.

Ua hoʻokūkū ʻia nā mākeke hoʻomehana pellet i nā makahiki i hala iho nei e nā kumu kūʻai wahie hoʻomehana ʻokoʻa haʻahaʻa (ʻaila a me nā kumukūʻai kinoea) a ʻoi aku ka mahana ma mua o ka hoʻoilo maʻamau ma ʻAmelika ʻAmelika a me ʻEulopa. Manaʻo ka FutureMetrics i ka hui pū ʻana o nā kumukūʻai aila kiʻekiʻe a me nā kulekele de-carbonization e hoʻihoʻi i ka ulu koi i ka ulu i nā 2020s.

No nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua like ka nui o ka ʻāpana lāʻau pellet ʻoihana e like me ka ʻāpana pellet wela, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e ulu nui aʻe i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana.
Ke alakaʻi ʻia nei ka mākeke lāʻau pellet ʻoihana e ka hoʻemi ʻana o ka carbon emissions a me nā kulekele hanauna hou. ʻO nā pellets lāʻau ʻoihana he wahie kalapona haʻahaʻa hiki ke hoʻololi maʻalahi i ka lanahu ma nā kikowaena uila nui.

Hiki ke pani ʻia nā pellets no ka lanahu ma nā ʻano ʻelua, ʻo ka hoʻololi piha ʻana a i ʻole ke kī pū ʻana. No ka hoʻololi piha ʻana, ua hoʻololi ʻia kahi ʻāpana holoʻokoʻa ma kahi kikowaena lanahu mai ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka lanahu i ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā pellets lāʻau. Pono kēia i nā hoʻololi i ka mālama wahie, nā ʻōnaehana hānai, a me nā mea puhi. ʻO ka hui pū ʻana ka puhi ʻana i nā pellet lāʻau me ka lanahu. Ma ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa co-firing ratio, pono nā hoʻololi liʻiliʻi i nā keʻena lanahu pulverized e kū nei. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ma nā hui haʻahaʻa (ma lalo o ʻehiku pakeneka) o nā pellets lāʻau, ʻaneʻane ʻaʻohe pono e hoʻololi.

ʻO ka noi ma UK a me EU e manaʻo ʻia e pālahalaha ʻia e 2020. Eia naʻe, manaʻo ʻia ka ulu nui ma Iapana a me South Korea ma 2020s. Manaʻo mākou e loaʻa iā Kanada a me ʻAmelika kekahi mau mea kanu mana lanahu pulverized e hoʻohana ana i nā pellet lāʻau ʻoihana ma 2025.

Koi pellet

ʻO nā papahana hoʻohuihui nui a me ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā papahana ma Iapana, EU a me UK, a me South Korea, a me ka nui o nā mea kanu mana kūʻokoʻa liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi ma Iapana, ua wānana ʻia e hoʻohui ʻia ma kahi o 24 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki i ka noi o kēia manawa e 2025. ʻO ka hapa nui o nā ʻO ka ulu ʻana mai Iapana, a me South Korea.

Mālama ʻo FutureMetrics i kahi waihona kikoʻī kikoʻī o ka papahana ma nā papahana āpau i manaʻo ʻia e ʻai i nā pellets lāʻau. ʻO ka hapa nui o ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā pellets no ka noi hou i hoʻolālā ʻia ma EU a me UK ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia me nā mea hana nui. Eia naʻe, hāʻawi nā mākeke Iapana a me S. Korea i ka manawa kūpono no ka mana hou, ʻo ia ka hapa nui, ʻaʻole i ka pipeline e like me kēia lā.

ʻEulopa a me ʻEnelani

ʻO ka ulu mua ʻana (2010 a hiki i kēia manawa) i ka ʻāpana lāʻau pellet ʻoihana mai ke komohana o ʻEulopa a me UK Eia naʻe, ke lohi nei ka ulu ʻana o ʻEulopa a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e piʻi ka pae ma mua o 2020s. ʻO ke koena o ka ulu ʻana o nā koi pellet lāʻau ʻEulopa e hele mai mai nā papahana ma Netherlands a me UK

ʻAʻole maopopo ke koi ʻia e nā mea hoʻohana Dutch, no ka mea, ua hoʻopaneʻe nā mea kanu lanahu i nā hoʻoholo hoʻoholo hope loa e pili ana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke kī pū ʻana a hiki i ka hāʻawi ʻia ʻana o ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo e hiki ke hoʻomau i kā lākou mau mea kanu lanahu. ʻO ka hapa nui o ka poʻe loiloi, me FutureMetrics, manaʻo e hoʻoholo ʻia kēia mau pilikia a e ulu paha ka koi Dutch ma ka liʻiliʻi o 2.5 miliona tonnes i kēlā me kēia makahiki i nā makahiki ʻekolu a ʻehā. Hiki paha ke piʻi aʻe ka koi ʻana o Dutch a hiki i ka 3.5 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki inā e hoʻomau nā ʻehā o nā hale lanahu i hāʻawi ʻia i nā haʻawina i kā lākou mau hoʻolālā.

ʻElua papahana UK, ʻo 400MW Lynemouth hoʻololi mana o EPH a me MGT's Teeside greenfield CHP mea kanu, i kēia manawa i ka hana ʻana a i ʻole ke kūkulu ʻia. Ua hoʻolaha aku nei ʻo Drax e hoʻohuli ʻo ia i kahi ʻāpana ʻehā e holo ma nā pellets. ʻEhia mau hola e holo ai kēlā ʻāpana i ka makahiki ʻaʻole maopopo i kēia manawa. Eia nō naʻe, ʻoiai ua hoʻoholo ʻia ka hoʻoholo hoʻopukapuka kālā, manaʻo ʻo FutureMetrics e hoʻopau ka ʻāpana 4 i kahi 900,000 tonnes hou i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Hiki i kēlā me kēia ʻāpana i hoʻololi ʻia ma ke kikowaena Drax ke hoʻopau ma kahi o 2.5 miliona tonnes i kēlā me kēia makahiki inā holo lākou i ka piha piha o ka makahiki. Hoʻolālā ʻo FutureMetrics i ka nui o nā koi hou i ʻEulopa a me ʻEnelani ma 6.0 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki.

Iapana

ʻO ka noi biomass ma Iapana e alakaʻi nui ʻia e nā ʻāpana kulekele ʻekolu: The Feed in Tariff (FiT) support scheme for renewable energy, coal thermal plant efficiency standards, and carbon emissions targets.

Hāʻawi ka FiT i nā mea hana mana kūʻokoʻa (IPPs) i ke kumu kūʻai no ka ikehu hou i loko o kahi manawa aelike lōʻihi - 20 mau makahiki no ka ikehu biomass. I kēia manawa, ma lalo o ka FiT, loaʻa i ka uila he 21 ¥/kWh, mai ka 24 ¥/kWh mai ka 24 ¥/kWh ma mua o Sepatemaba 30. 2017. Eia naʻe, ua laka ʻia nā helu o nā IPP biomass i loaʻa ka FiT kiʻekiʻe ma ia pākēneka (ma kahi o $0.214/kWh ma nā kumukūʻai kūʻai o kēia manawa).

Ua hoʻopuka ka Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI) i kahi mea i kapa ʻia ʻo "Best Energy Mix" no 2030. Ma kēlā hoʻolālā, ʻo ka mana biomass ka 4.1 pakeneka o ka nui o ka hana uila o Iapana i 2030. Ua like kēia me ka 26 miliona. metric tons o nā pellets (inā he mau pellet lāʻau ka biomass a pau).

I ka makahiki 2016, ua hoʻokuʻu ʻo METI i kahi pepa e wehewehe ana i nā kūlana maikaʻi loa o ka ʻenehana (BAT) no nā mea kanu wela. Hoʻokumu ka pepa i nā kūlana kūpono liʻiliʻi no nā mea hana mana. I ka makahiki 2016, aia ma kahi o hoʻokahi hapakolu wale nō o ka hanauna lanahu o Iapana i loaʻa mai nā mea kanu i kūpono i ka maʻamau BAT. ʻO kahi ala e hoʻokō ai i ke kūlana hana hou ʻo ia ka hoʻohui ʻana i nā pellet lāʻau.

Hoʻohālikelike ʻia ka pono o nā mea kanu ma ka puʻunaue ʻana i ka ikehu me ka hoʻokomo ikehu. No laila, no ka laʻana, inā hoʻohana ka mana mana i ka 100 MWh o ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka ikehu e hana ai i 35 MWh, ke hana nei kēlā mea kanu ma ka 35 pākēneka o ka pono.

Ua ʻae ʻo METI i ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka ikehu mai ka biomass co-firing e unuhi ʻia mai ka hoʻokomo. Inā ʻo ka mea kanu like i hōʻike ʻia ma luna nei e hoʻopau pū i 15 MWh o nā pellet lāʻau, ʻo ka pono o ka mea kanu ma lalo o ka helu hou ʻana he 35 MWh / (100 MWh – 15 MWh) = 41.2 pākēneka, ʻoi aku ia ma luna o ka paepae maʻamau. Ua helu ʻo FutureMetrics i ka tonnage o nā pelleti lāʻau e koi ʻia e nā mea kanu mana Iapana e hoʻokō i nā mea kanu haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa i ka hoʻokō ʻana i ka hōʻike ʻo Japanese Biomass Outlook e FutureMetrics. Aia i loko o ka hōʻike ka ʻikepili kikoʻī e pili ana i ka koi i manaʻo ʻia no nā pellets lāʻau, ka ʻili ʻili pāma, a me nā ʻāpana lāʻau ma Iapana a me nā kulekele e hoʻokau nei i kēlā koi.

ʻO ka wānana a FutureMetrics no ka noi pellet e nā mea hana mana kūʻokoʻa liʻiliʻi (IPPs) ma kahi o 4.7 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki e 2025. Hoʻokumu ʻia kēia ma ka nānā ʻana o kahi 140 IPPs i kikoʻī ʻia ma ka Japanese Biomass Outlook.

ʻO ka nui o ka noi ma Iapana mai nā mea kanu pono a me nā IPP hiki ke ʻoi aku ma mua o 12 miliona tonnes i kēlā me kēia makahiki e 2025.

Hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo

Aia kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka hilinaʻi e pili ana i ka hoʻomau mau ʻana o nā mākeke pellet ʻEulopa. Ke koi nei ʻo Iapana, i ka wā e holo ai nā papahana IPP a loaʻa i nā ponohana nui nā pōmaikaʻi FiT, pono nō hoʻi e paʻa a ulu paha e like me ka wānana. ʻOi aku ka paʻakikī o ka noi ʻana i ka wā e hiki mai ana ma S. Korea ma muli o ka maopopo ʻole o nā kumukūʻai o REC. ʻO ka holoʻokoʻa, manaʻo ʻo FutureMetrics i ka hiki ke koi hou ʻia no nā pellets lāʻau ʻoihana a hiki i 2025 ma mua o 26 miliona tonnes i kēlā me kēia makahiki.